By Angu Lesley Ngwa Akonwi
Football Writer,kick442.com-Cameroon
As Africa’s 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign heads into its final round, the battle for the best runners-up places is set for a dramatic twist — and it could all come down to Eritrea’s withdrawal.
The East African nation pulled out of Morocco’s group earlier in the campaign, leaving the section with only five teams. That imbalance is expected to force CAF and FIFA to adjust the final tables by expunging results against the sides that finish bottom of each group, to ensure all runners-up are compared on an equal basis.
Major shake-up expected
If the ruling is applied after the final matchday, several leading contenders could see their points and goal tallies reduced.
Burkina Faso stand to lose six points and +9 goal difference earned from victories over Djibouti.
DR Congo would forfeit six points and +5 goals obtained against South Sudan.
Gabon could lose six points and +7 goals secured against Seychelles.
Madagascar would also drop six points and +5 goals from their wins over Chad.
Such deductions could have a dramatic impact on the final ranking of group runners-up — potentially altering who advances to the continental playoffs for the last available World Cup slots.
Cameroon’s subtle advantage
Interestingly, Cameroon appear to be one of the few sides who might benefit from the recalculation. Having dropped points against the bottom side in their group, the Indomitable Lions would only lose four points, rather than six.
That could prove decisive. If CAF enforces the expungement rule, Cameroon could leapfrog Madagascar, Burkina Faso, and DR Congo in the adjusted runners-up standings.
With just one round of fixtures remaining, two final wins would likely be enough to seal second place in Group D and keep their World Cup hopes alive heading into the intercontinental playoffs.
Tight margins and tense finishes
The expected adjustment adds a new layer of complexity to what is already a fiercely competitive qualifying campaign. A single goal — or a dropped point — could now determine who continues the journey toward North America 2026.
While nothing has been officially confirmed, FIFA is expected to clarify the procedure following the final round of matches later this month.
For now, every side chasing a playoff spot will know that Eritrea’s withdrawal may yet be the wildcard that reshapes Africa’s road to the World Cup.
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