WAFCON 2026: How Zambia and Malawi Could Eliminate Nigeria Even if the Super Falcons Beat Egypt 50-0

By Angu Lesley

Football Writer,kick442.com-Cameroon

Nigeria’s hopes of reaching the quarter-finals of the 2026 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations (WAFCON) may not rest solely on their final Group C match against Egypt.

While victory over the North Africans is essential, the Super Falcons could still be eliminated regardless of their winning margin—even if they were to record an unprecedented 50-0 victory.

The reason lies in the Confederation of African Football’s (CAF) head-to-head tie-breaking rules.

After two rounds of matches, Malawi lead Group C with six points following victories over Nigeria (3-2) and Egypt (3-1). Nigeria bounced back from their opening defeat by edging Zambia 1-0, while the Copper Queens responded with a resounding 6-0 win over Egypt.

If Nigeria defeat Egypt and Zambia also beat Malawi, all three teams would finish on six points.

Contrary to what many fans believe, CAF does not use overall goal difference as the first tiebreaker. Instead, the rankings are determined using only the results involving the tied teams. The order is:

• Points obtained in matches between the tied teams.
• Goal difference in those head-to-head matches.
• Goals scored in those head-to-head matches.

Only if the teams remain tied after these criteria does overall goal difference come into play, meaning Nigeria’s result against Egypt would not influence the initial ranking among the three sides.

As a result, Zambia and Malawi could both progress at Nigeria’s expense if Zambia defeat Malawi by a one-goal margin in a high-scoring contest, such as 4-3. In that scenario, the head-to-head goals scored among the tied teams would favour Zambia and Malawi, leaving Nigeria eliminated despite beating Egypt.

If Zambia win by one goal in a low-scoring game, such as 1-0, Zambia would be eliminated, with Nigeria and Malawi advancing.

A Zambian victory by two or more goals, including scorelines like 2-0 or 3-1, would eliminate Malawi and send Nigeria and Zambia through to the quarter-finals.

Should Zambia fail to beat Malawi, the Copper Queens would be eliminated, allowing Nigeria and Malawi to qualify, provided the Super Falcons defeat Egypt.

With qualification hanging on both their own result and the outcome of Zambia versus Malawi, the final round of Group C fixtures promises to be one of the most dramatic finishes of the tournament.