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AFCON 2025: Heavyweights, Hexes, and the Fight in the Last 16

by neilley ebessa January 2, 2026

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By Oni Ladonette Ondesa,

Journalist kick442.com – Cameroon

36 games played, 87 goals scored, the group stage of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations has delivered its verdict with the drama, tension, and unpredictability that define this continental showpiece.

What began as tactical chess across six groups has crystallized into a bracket brimming with quality and loaded with grudge matches. While every fixture carries the weight of national dreams, four clashes stand out as potential finals before their time.

Royal Air Maroc – Early Birds Promotion Cameroon to Toronto

⚽️ South Africa 🇿🇦 vs 🇨🇲 Cameroon

South Africa vs. Cameroon
Sunday, January 4 | Stade Al Medina, Rabat | 8:00pm

This fixture carries narrative weight that transcends the scoreline. Hugo Broos, the 73-year-old Belgian tactician who guided Cameroon to their fifth AFCON crown in Gabon 2017, now stands in the opposite technical area plotting their elimination.

Bafana Bafana finished Group B runners-up with six points, though their passage came wrapped in anxiety. They opened with a 2-1 victory over Angola, Oswin Appollis and Lyle Foster combining beautifully. Then came a reality check, a 1-0 defeat to Egypt that exposed defensive lapses Broos himself flagged as terminal against elite opposition.

The Zimbabwe clash on Matchday 3 told the story of their tournament in microcosm. Tshepang Moremi opened the scoring in the seventh minute, but defensive disorganization allowed Tawanda Maswanhise to equalize. Foster restored the lead after halftime, capitalizing on a defensive howler. Zimbabwe leveled again through an Aubrey Modiba own goal. Only a late Appollis penalty, awarded for Marvelous Nakamba’s handball, secured passage. Foster and Appollis each scored twice across the group stage, accounting for four of South Africa’s five goals. Their attacking combinations suggest a side hitting stride, but defensive fragility remains a concern.

Cameroon, meanwhile, progressed from Group F unbeaten with seven points, though their performances lacked the conviction befitting five continental crowns. They opened with a narrow 1-0 win over Gabon, Karl Etta Eyong scoring the second-fastest goal in Cameroon’s AFCON history. A 1-1 draw with defending champions Côte d’Ivoire showcased resilience but also highlighted their limitations in breaking down organized defenses. They sealed progression with a 2-1 victory over Mozambique in their final group outing.

This will be the tenth meeting between these nations: five ended in draws, three wins for South Africa, and just one for Cameroon. More significantly, South Africa haven’t lost a competitive fixture to Cameroon in over three decades, a psychological edge Broos will exploit ruthlessly.

Côte d’Ivoire vs. Burkina Faso
Tuesday, January 6 | Grand Stade de Marrakech | 8:00pm

Burkina Faso contre Côte d’Ivoire en huitième de finale

The defending champions are survivors. Côte d’ivoire topped Group F through last-gasp heroics, narrow victories, and defensive vulnerabilities that invite disaster against elite counter-attacking sides. They face a Burkina Faso outfit built specifically to upset continental aristocracy. This West African derby is the tournament’s ultimate banana skin.

Côte d’Ivoire’s group campaign was a rollercoaster. They opened with a 1-0 win over Mozambique in Fez, Amad Diallo striking shortly after halftime. A 1-1 draw with Cameroon highlighted both their attacking quality and defensive fragility. Their final match against Gabon epitomized the tournament thus far: trailing 2-0 and needing victory, they produced a dramatic 3-2 comeback.

Burkina Faso finished Group E runners-up with six points. Started with a 2-1 win over Equatorial Guinea, lost 1-0 to group leaders Algeria before sealing their fate with a 2-0 win over Sudan. The Stallions relied on their trademark low block, absorbing pressure, suffocating space, and striking on the counter. They conceded two just goals across three matches.

Côte d’Ivoire hold the historical edge from twenty meetings: nine wins to Burkina Faso’s three, with eight draws. Yet the champions’ curse looms large. Since 2010, no AFCON titleholder has reached the quarter-finals of the subsequent tournament. Ivory Coast must become hex-breakers in Marrakech.

Algeria vs. DR Congo

Algeria vs. DR Congo
Tuesday, January 6 | Stade Prince Moulay Abdellah, Rabat | 8:00pm

This is the final before the final. Algeria and DR Congo, two genuine title contenders, face elimination before the quarter-finals even begin. The winner inherits “team to beat” status and the the loser flies home wondering what might have been.

Algeria swept Group E with a perfect nine points, dominating every match. From a 3-0 win over Sudan to saving face with a 1-0 win over Burkina Faso and a commanding 3-1 win over Equatorial Guinea, Algeria is one of the best team of the group stage. They scored six goals and conceded just one in 270 minutes. Under Vladimir Petković, the Desert Foxes have become a high-pressing machine.

DR Congo finished Group D runners-up with seven points, losing out to Senegal on goal difference. The Leopards conceded just once, to 2021 champions Senegal, anchored by Chancel Mbemba, and dismantled Botswana 3-0 in their final group match.

Algeria remain unbeaten against DR Congo across six previous encounters, with two wins and four draws. This will mark their first meeting in seven years, adding intrigue: how much have both sides evolved since their last clash?

Mali vs. Tunisia

The Eagle Derby: Mali vs. Tunisia
Saturday, January 3 | Stade Mohammed V, Casablanca | 8:00pm

History carries a hex Tunisia must exorcise, they have never beaten Mali in AFCON history. Saturday’s Eagle Derby could finally break the curse or reinforce it with brutal finality.

Mali advanced as the tournament’s “immovable object,” drawing all three group matches. They will be without midfielder Amadou Haidara, suspended after a red card in their final group game. Tunisia, meanwhile, scored six goals in the group stage but conceded in all three matches. Defensive lapses have plagued them, and Mali’s organized midfield could exploit these weaknesses.

Tunisia hold a slight edge in overall head-to-head record: seven wins to Mali’s five from fifteen meetings. But at AFCON, Mali has never lost to Tunisia. And in every fixture, Mali has scored first. From 1-0 win in limbe back to 2023 to a one all draw in Côte d’Ivoire . Form and history collide in Casablanca on Saturday evening. Knockout football respects neither.

The Knockout Reality

While the heavyweights collide, the bracket offers no sanctuary. Senegal face a Sudan side appearing in the knockouts for just the second time since 1970.

Hosts Morocco are expected to dominate Tanzania, making their first knockout appearance in 45 years.

Egypt must navigate a disciplined Benin unit. Nigeria, perfect in the groups, meet Mozambique in what should be straightforward passage.

In Morocco, pedigree is myth. From Saturday, sixteen become eight. No replays. No second chances. Just ninety minutes, possibly extra time, maybe penalties, and the unforgiving arithmetic of elimination.

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